• Third-quarter growth estimates were revised up in the United States (US), euro zone and Japan
• Inflation softened in key advanced economies, leading their central banks to moderate the pace of rate hikes
• Energy prices softened further in November, but non-energy prices rose
  

Global activity has held up surprisingly well so far, despite a fast pace of policy rate hikes and consistently high geopolitical uncertainties. This was also reflected in the upward revision in the third quarter gross domestic product (GDP) growth estimates in major advanced economies and has led S&P Global to revise up its 2022 world GDP growth forecast by 30 basis points (bps) to 3.4%. At the same time, a sharp slowdown is inevitable, given the rise in policy rates is the steepest in four decades, and due to ongoing geopolitical tensions and energy supply constraints stemming from the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Hence, the recent outperformance is unlikely to last, and a significant slowdown is likely ahead. In this light, the global growth forecast for 2023 has been revised down 20 bps to 2.2%.