North bucks the trend

Power demand in India is estimated to have risen~7.0% on-year in July to ~150 billion units (BUs) owing to higher power demand in rain-deficient northern states.

That follows an 8.6% on-year rise in demand in June.

Consequently, April-July 2024, demand for power increased ~10% on-year.

However, minus the ~16% on-year surge in power demand in the north, demand moderated in other regions. Power demand rose ~4.0% in the southern region and declined a marginal ~1.0% in the western region. The sharp rise in demand in the northern region was primarily because of Punjab, Haryana and Rajasthan.

The variance in demand in the north vs the other regions can be explained largely by the spatial distribution of the monsoon.

In July, rainfall in Maharashtra and Gujarat was 63% and 45% higher than normal, respectively. Ditto Karnataka, Telangana and Andhra Pradesh— rainfall in these states was 60%, 33% and 28% above normal, respectively. In contrast, Punjab and Haryana received deficient rainfall of 44% and 41%, respectively, which is likely to have led to higher power demand for irrigation as these are key agriculture states.